SCIENCE. Volume 285, Number 5432, Issue of 27 Aug 1999, p. 1355.

Cold Fusion Prediction

Eugene F. Mallove (Letters, 18 June, p. 1929) maintains his continued enthusiasm for cold fusion and writes about me, "Garwin and others are simply ignoring data in favor of their theories that these low energy nuclear reactions are impossible. Garwin's quoted assertions indicate a paradigm paralysis that is familiar to historians of science. Its remedy is a hard look at data, not uninformed opinion."

In the spirit of informing your readers, I suggest a look at the Mallove prediction to be found at This URL documents a bet between Eugene Mallove and Barry Merriman and others as to whether by 19 July 1996 "cold fusion (CF) will be widely accepted as existing; as energy producing; or as economically viable." Mallove's written testimony to the subcommittee on energy of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space, and Technology (5 May 1993) includes, "Prototype cold fusion home heating units are widely expected to emerge this year or next...."

I would love to see cold fusion a reality. However, my own calendar reads 1999, and I have yet to see any home heating units or electrical power generation by cold fusion.

Richard L. Garwin
IBM Fellow Emeritus,
Thomas J. Watson Research Center,
Post Office Box 218,
Yorktown Heights, NY 10598-0218, USA.